Yes, I think the 2-party system is pretty well inevitable in the medium term under FPTP. Even if voters aren't enthusiastic about particular parties they will often vote for the 'least bad' option which is viable, and which can stop a worse option winning. I feel that America is slightly more porous, because you have an open primary system whereby outsiders can get onto the ticket despite disapproval from the party they represent. In the case of someone like Trump they can go all the way. This is impossible in Britain where central party organisations can block you from winning their nomination.
I think we are entering a period of fracture. The two main parties have largely been held together because their supporters fear the other. Currently this appears to be disintegrating, but FPTP will mean that they will need to consolidate into two broad alternatives within a couple of elections: that could mean Reform replacing the Tories, or disappearing, or there being some type of alliance / accommodation between them. Labour face similar pressures, but these are slightly more diffuse: some liberals supporting the Liberal Democrats; more statist voters leaving for the Greens; and a large number of Muslims now supporting Islamic candidates - four were elected to Parliament in 2024.
This is outside the scope of this essay, but what do you make of the fact that Britain had a 2-Party system before it had universal suffrage?
The same is true for America, which I mention only because both also have First-Past-the-Post.
Could we be entering into a multi-party dynamic under FPTP?
Thanks for the comment.
Yes, I think the 2-party system is pretty well inevitable in the medium term under FPTP. Even if voters aren't enthusiastic about particular parties they will often vote for the 'least bad' option which is viable, and which can stop a worse option winning. I feel that America is slightly more porous, because you have an open primary system whereby outsiders can get onto the ticket despite disapproval from the party they represent. In the case of someone like Trump they can go all the way. This is impossible in Britain where central party organisations can block you from winning their nomination.
I think we are entering a period of fracture. The two main parties have largely been held together because their supporters fear the other. Currently this appears to be disintegrating, but FPTP will mean that they will need to consolidate into two broad alternatives within a couple of elections: that could mean Reform replacing the Tories, or disappearing, or there being some type of alliance / accommodation between them. Labour face similar pressures, but these are slightly more diffuse: some liberals supporting the Liberal Democrats; more statist voters leaving for the Greens; and a large number of Muslims now supporting Islamic candidates - four were elected to Parliament in 2024.